Tips for Ascot: Best value bets on Saturday December 23

Fleur Au Fusil caught my eye with her recent Leopardstown victory, but she’ll require the hood to help settle her if she’s to get home, although the faster race tempo should also help. Both Jalon D’oudairies & Romeo Coolio, trained by Gordon Elliott, stand out as strong contenders, and it’s difficult to choose between the two. Teeshan appears to be the top choice among the British runners and can secure a place, or even victory, in the race.

Horse racing tips: Cheltenham, Doncaster, Newbury – Saturday October 26

He was unlucky at Haydock last Saturday and a return to this trip will suit. TAMFANA can win a well-deserved Group 1 in the Sun Chariot Stakes. She was desperately unlucky not to win the 1,000 Guineas here in May and stepping up in trip in two French Group 1s has not really suited. She looked much more comfortable when bolting up over this trip at Sandown in August. Sunracing’s columnist Andrew Balding saddles likely favourite Brighton Boy and he was very strong at the finish at York. She’s bred to handle the ground and the only concern would be her 100-day absence, but, given the big money on offer, she will surely be primed for this.

Cheltenham Festival 2024: Day One Preview, Tips

In this case, 2nd of four beats two horses and loses to one horse, so has a PRB score of 67% (or 0.67) for beating two out of three of its rivals. Impact Value (IV) is a measure of how frequently something happens for x in relation to how frequently it happens for all. For instance, how often the going is good to soft on the opening day of the Cheltenham Festival compared to how often the going is good to soft over all days of the Cheltenham Festival. Protektorat has been Pricewise’d in the last couple of days, that value vacuum cleaner meaning he’s a rum price for us Johnny Come Lately’s, but he’s not really one I’m yet persuaded by anyway. And so, enfin, let us peruse the past performances, in approximate market rank order.

My big 3-1 NAP loves soft ground and heads to Ascot in great form

In fact, overall, 17 of Henderson’s 32 runners in the race finished in the first three – take that, Willie! There’s a leap of faith required with this chap that there isn’t with some of the Irish Grade 1 horses but that’s reflected in their respective odds. One Bolts Up Daily does need to keep a weather eye on the yard’s form, however, as there have been a fair number of P’s on the recent Hendo score card. He hasn’t had a runner, let alone a winner, since 2nd March and has just one entered pre-Cheltenham, at Plumpton on Monday.

Altior joins the list of Cheltenham heroes with victory in the Queen Mother Champion Chase

They are 0 from 22, though then nine-year-old Whisper nearly benefited from Might Bite’s errant course up the hill last year in the RSA Chase. It is worth noting that nine of those 22 were priced at 7/1 or shorter. That would have netted 36 winners from 180 runners (20% strike rate, 69% race win strike rate) and a level stakes profit of 46.48 points at Starting Price. Moreover, the approach was profitable in eight of the ten years, exceptions being 2016 and 2009.

Stars of sport

• And Tea Clipper is interesting with first time cheekpieces and first run after a wind operation.
• There are eight races on the card, starting with two Grade Ones,  the Novices’ Hurdle at 1.30pm and the Novices’ Chase 40 minutes later.
• Clearly not right when reopposing Jango Baie in that G1 he was pulled up on the soft ground there before beating the geegeez.co.uk syndicate horse Dartmoor Pirate into second at Huntingdon last time.
• This was a fine display – close to his best previous form – as Politologue had been in the ascendancy with three smart wins in top class races to his credit.
• They also offer a Money Back Special on selected race events each day for horses that finish second to the SP favorite.
• Every single race every day can be seen live on Sky Sports Racing (free on Sky channel 415) and Racing TV (a subscription channel on Sky 424).
• Both of those top level scores were on the soft side of good, though it might be a lot wetter here.

The ex-French four-year-old, who joined Karl Burke for the start of the year, travelled from Middleham to Newcastle on 16 March with a record of one win from 15 attempts. Will Buick’s partner dropped to handicap company for a valuable event on Sandown Park’s Coral-Eclipse undercard and lost little in defeat with a three-quarter-length second to Sinjaari. There is more to come on the fifth outing of Checkandchallenge’s promising career and he’s fancied to take the step back up in class in his stride.

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• Detailed race previews enable you to understand the nuances of each race, helping you make more informed and strategic choices.
• A race which is likely to run at a furious gallop, with number contenders for this valuable prize for the Hunter Chasers and amateur jockeys.
• Just as exciting is horserace betting, which allows you to back your favourite horse and jockey by placing bets at your bookie shop, or log in and place bets on your sports betting website.
• Mistergif led on his sole Irish start though that was a maiden hurdle only, while Tullyhill has led the last twice.
• Three of those races have been at the Festival where he has the full set of medals; his only gold, mind, came in a handicap, and he’s since finished third in the 2020 Ryanair and runner up in last season’s Gold Cup.

The merit of that heavy ground G1 form is unclear with the second and third getting thumped next time, but the winner could have done no more. He is clearly a very classy recruit whose maiden win offers hope that the quicker Cheltenham turf won’t be a problem. We have to yet to see what he’ll find off the bridle, though, and it is hard to imagine any horse taking this ‘on the snaff’. Of course, it is sometimes difficult to predict who the favourite will be pre-race which can be an issue for trying to exploit ‘market data’. However, as a general rule, the stronger the favourite the better. What I mean by that is, horses who are a much shorter price than the second horse in the betting tend to do best here at the festival.

At least someone’s had a good day…

The strange words and phrases are just part of the voyage you begin when following this rewarding sport. To access our great pages including tips, strategies and interviews, simply login or register below. As part of a tie-up with SBC to help expose the quality of No Foto Needed’s advice, he supplied all advice free of charge to SBC members between the 14th of March and the 12th August 2022, during which time the service thrived. No Foto Needed began proofing his advice to us in early 2021 as a means to showcase his expertise.

50 Ultima Handicap Chase (Grade 3 handicap, 3m1f)

Remember to use the trends listed above along with the Ayr racing predictions to see if you can find the winner of the Ayr Gold Cup. If you are looking to place a bet on this race well in advance of the actual running, then there may be an ante-post market available for you to place your bet. If you are unfamiliar with this type of betting then head over to the OLBG Betting School and read our Ante-Post Horse Racing article which explains how ante-post betting works. Created in 2007, this class two handicap is run over a trip of six furlongs at Doncaster Racecourse and is open to runners who are aged three or older.

Horse Racing in the UK

There might be 34 runners but MR.INCREDIBLE sounds so similar to my husband that I really have no other choice. The biggest race of the Jumps season is upon us and we’ve got you sorted. Over the years, the vastly experienced member of the weighing room has been Ireland’s champion jockey on three occasions. “I’ve been in the gym and have been doing lots of fitness work, but there is a big difference between being fit and being race-fit. In the months after the fall, Russell faced a gruelling recovery, having bolts drilled into his head and weights hung from his head to realign his spine.

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Winners of one or two races on heavy are 1.4 times more likely to win than heavy maidens; and winners of three heavy ground races previously are more than 1.5 times more likely to prevail than maidens on that extreme of going. This horse is having its second run after a wind op and its first wearing a tongue tie. Both of those might be expected to eke out a little improvement; and look at the contextual snippets block – accessed by clicking the trainer icon (with the red box around it). There we see Fry’s two year record with handicap debutants at any track, which is fairly unexciting, but note above it his record when moving a horse notably in distance. A perfect example of a terrible race in need of a winner, with a single horse moderately favoured by conditions and within a few pounds (see right hand columns) of its last winning mark.

Most likely is that the top two in the betting will mark each other behind the rags, with Vauban expected to be ridden cold at the back of the field. It will be frenetic, due to the field size and the number of jockeys having their first ride of the week. The first of nine handicaps and I’ll tell you now that my thoughts will be (mercifully) brief. This race has been won by the home team exclusively since Dun Doire and Tony Martin wrested it away in 2006. They actually don’t run many – just three darts this year – and I’ll be fielding against them, perhaps carelessly. There looks to be plenty of early speed in this line up with each of Ha d’Or, Dysart Dynamo and Jonbon leading in their most recent three races.

It offers a breathtaking view to the west, over Cheltenham and the racecourse, over the River Severn and to Wales; and also across to the historic town of Winchcombe. Many of our holiday cottages are burrowed in these areas, making them the perfect base for staying while learning more about the history of the Gold Cup. Here are some other notable races at the Doncaster racecourse throughout the racing season that you may be interested in.

• Naturally, if the horse is two from five, it will be more compelling than if it’s two from 25!
• He was a good winner of a Naas maiden hurdle before backing that up with winning a Grade 3 hurdle at Cork on only his second start.
• Following these will give you some indication as to what you can expect in the run-up to a big event.
• Meanwhile, those priced at 14/1 or shorter won 50 races from 300 starters, and lost just two points at SP.
• This is because they are the biggest group, have by far the best record win wise, and they have just about broken even.
• It’s a really tough heat with even fewer clues than your average Festival handicap.
• Hence one needs to be aware that results for runners priced 6/1 or shorter are difficult to predict for a one–off Festival, 28 races always being a small sample size.
• With 59 racecourses in Britain and 26 in Ireland, you’re almost certainly not far away from a local track, and tickets for regular meetings (when spectators are allowed) can often be as low as £10.
• There, you will be able to see a list of all the runners and various stats about them such as their weights, ages, and jockeys.
• When he saw the horse coming along it was too late, the other two went already.

Indefatigable looks like getting her optimal conditions for the first time in a while and may be over-priced for hail mary each way players. Mrs Milner, like Heaven Help Us, was a handicap hurdle winner at last year’s Festival, her score coming in the three mile Pertemps Final. This is a different test, more about speed than stamina, though she had the gears to win a couple of lower grade two mile hurdles earlier in her career. Related, and perhaps more remarkable, is that the last five favourites in the race – all of them short – were turned over. In spite of the small field the Supreme remains a competitive race with five horses at single figure prices. They are headed by inmates of the unofficial Prestbury Cup team captains Nicky Henderson and Willie Mullins and, more pertinently, their A and B players, Constitution Hill and Jonbon (NJH) and Dysart Dynamo and Kilcruit (WPM).

• Madara rates a mention as a progressive 5yo with a 3-3 record on testing ground, and he went to Ireland to spank the local handicappers at the DRF.
• Henry VIII invested heavily in horse breeding and kept his own training grounds.
• The traditional pipe opener restored to its 1.30 tapes up slot and, after much hokey cokeying amongst the mega stable entries we have our list of runners and riders fixed.
• The biggest race of the Jumps season is upon us and we’ve got you sorted.
• And last year’s Albert Bartlett winner, Vanillier, must also be a contender on that evidence though not on much evidence since.
• Although Bravemansgame may prefer flatter tracks, he has the strongest form in the race this season.
• Experience has counted for a lot in recent times, with nine of the past ten winners having four-plus seasonal runs and four-plus chase starts.
• GET ready for a bit of Jamie Spencer (below) magic on CARRYTHEONE.

The NAP was finally back in the winners enclosure yesterday so hopefully we can put a run of winners together now. We head to Beverley on Tuesday afternoon and GOLDEN WAR can open his account. This son of Churchill ran his best race to date when beaten a length over C&D last month and given that form has been well advertised since I think he can go one better here. He’ll need to improve again probably but he’s been gelded since and the hood goes on too which should sharpen him up. Sydney Street left his debut run behind to finish third at Ffos Las last time and will be the danger if building on that again. Rich King also looks to have a future and he should do better at some point too.

We work with the belief that every race and every meeting is important, so we’ll give exactly the same coverage to a Monday night meeting at Windsor or an ITV Racing covered race at Newmarket. I still think a mark of 67 somewhat underestimates BRAZEN BOLT and back over this track and trip he looks to have plenty going for him. He travelled notably well before winning convincingly on penultimate start and I can see a similar scenario panning out here.

• As Docklands carries the colours of Australian-based owners OTI Racing, he is set for a trip to the southern hemisphere later in the year.
• All of the above verbosity is by way of suggesting that Shishkin will probably win assuming he turns up in one piece (never a given).
• This special spot was also once part of the stables to a once neighbouring 18th-century coaching inn, with evidence of this time still seen in the cottage’s ancient, exposed beams.
• Lazuli (1.50) is a sprinter going places and should be able to land the Coral Charge after his brilliant victory in the Scurry Stakes last time.

Last year’s overall pasting for the home team was reflected in the Gold Cup itself as Irish runners filled out the medal positions, Britain’s top performer being the valiant eleven-year-old Native River in fourth. It is worth further noting that there were only four Irish runners in the field of twelve. With the exception of 152-rated Lord Windermere, who just got the best of a bizarre five-way scrap up the hill in 2014, every other Gold Cup winner since 2007 has been rated at least 164. The average winning rating in that time, bar Lord Windermere, was a touch over 171. With just two months to go until the Cheltenham Festival 2022, thoughts begin to turn to those high class clashes, none more so perhaps than the Blue Riband itself, the Cheltenham Gold Cup.

This approach works just as well for National Hunt races as it does for those on the flat, as example 6 perfectly demonstrates. After what has been a circuitous introduction even by my own highly verbose standards, it’s time for the meat. If you’ve got this far, I’m safely assuming you’re at least receptive to the notion that finding bargains is different from – and better than – buying cheap stuff. With that in mind, here are five angles I personally use when trying to isolate value; that is, before striking any bet. Arriving at a selection is also fun, the process taking a good bit longer than the actual event for most ‘serious recreationals’.

Exhibit A to that end are the two races – both comfortable victories, in Grade 2 and Grade 1 company – in one month, the final month of last year. If that’s the good news, the less good news is that Exhibit B must likely follow this weekend at the (outright excellent) Dublin Racing Festival; and Exhibit C requires him to cross the Irish channel in mid-March sans sicknote. Any horse could come down or have a heart murmur in the heat of combat; Shishkin could get beaten by Energumene; a previously unsighted dark horse could emerge in one of the novice chases (though that feels unlikely). Unlike CPS, EA has been slated to start twice and has started – and finished first – twice. He’s had an incident-free prep thus far and has jumped really well in his three chase races to date.

That is not, of course, because he can’t or won’t win; but rather that his price probably over-states his chance currently. On the other hand, many of Willie Mullins’s runners at Cheltenham over the years have worn earplugs which have not been declared, so the figures only tell part of the story. Favourites (Clear & joint) have won 3 of the last 10 renewals of the Mares Hurdle and have performed 44% worse than market expectations. Eight of the last 10 winners had an Official Rating of 147 or higher. Six of the last ten winners were trained by Willie Mullins (4) and Henry De Bromhead (2). It looks a minefield to be honest with most of the field potential improvers.

MT – This is a great betting race, as it’s a different test from most of the races through the season and throws up some big priced winner as a result. Only one winner shorter than 11/1 in the past nine years. Favori de Champdou and Affordale Fury are two of interest, but whatever you like, swing win only rather than each way.

It’s fair to say that the Tizzard stable was in poor form at that moment and is firing much better now; if that was a factor in War Lord’s defeat, he might be over-priced. Want to oppose Sir Gerhard who is inexperienced over fences and would probably be running over shorter if trained by anyone else than Willie. Thunder Rock could be an ‘in running’ play if he’s travelling well in the first mile. Of the big prices, Coolvalla has nothing like the ratings to be in the shake up at this level. And yet, he’s won handicap chases by 19 lengths and 17 lengths the last twice, has proven stamina, jumps well, and comes here nicely rested. The four miler is not quite the race it was, and not just because it’s only three miles and six furlongs in distance these days.

Recent form shows how well they’ve been running, Last Run is the number of days since their last outing and the forecast is the forecast decimal odds according to Timeform. As with any form of betting, there are always risks involved. While Free Horse Racing Tips can increase your chances of winning, there is no guarantee of success.

Billboard Star brings Group form to the table and gets in here off a lovely racing weight. GET ready for a bit of Jamie Spencer (below) magic on CARRYTHEONE. He looks like he belongs at this level, but conditions would be a concern. English Oaks looked smart when hacking up here in the Buckingham Palace.